Cable has “Dark Winds” and dark prospects

As AMC moves out of the witches’ den and back to the reservation (shown here), it’s time for a nagging question:
What’s ahead for scripted shows on basic-cable? Will they all go away?
Cable “is in a state of steady decline,” Variety (the show-business trade paper) wrote recently. “Some would call it a state of decay.”
Others wouldn’t. The collapse “is irreversible,” one expert (Naveen Sarma) told Variety, “but there is no immediate cliff. We expect the decline will be a steady one that will take years.”
We’re not talking about the pay-extra channels (HBO, Showtime etc.) or the channels (Disney, Hallmark, etc.) with specialized audiences.
Instead, this involves the general channels that used to be hugely ambitious. The USA Network gave us “Monk,” “Suits,” “Burn Notice” and the riveting “Mr. Robot”; TNT had “Babylon 5,” “The Closer,” “Snowpiercer” and the brilliant “Monday Mornings.” Now both have quit making scripted shows.
Fortunately, a few resist the trend. John Landgraf, the FX chief, was asked about that two years ago by the Television Critics Association.
“The basic-cable business is really struggling to compete,” he said then. “And I think FX and AMC are kind of holding the fort right now.”
FX has slowed down lately, but has a great track record – from “Fargo” to “Shogun” – and big plans.
And AMC keeps going. On March 2, it concluded the strong second season of “Mayfair Witches.” (You can still catch it on AMC+, Netflix and beyond.) A week later – 9 p.m. Sunday, March 9 – it launches the third season of “Dark Winds,” which has already been renewed for a fourth.
This season mostly has all the traits of the first two. In the stark, sprawling, backdrop of the Navajo nation, a veteran cop – deeply caring, beneath a stoic facade – links with his young deputy to solve complicated cases.
That’s “mostly.” There’s a sixth episode coming that is both beautifully crafted and totally enigmatic. It mostly leaves you with a “huh???!??”
But AMC is used to taking chances. It gave us “Mad Men,” “Breaking Bad” and “Better Call Saul.” And, as AMC chief Dan McDermott reminds us: “‘The Walking Dead’ was the biggest show in the history of cable-TV.”
McDermott was talking to the TCA two years ago, as the decline was emerging. He calls it a necessary period of reflection and correction.” The problem involves both:
— Cord-cutters. In 2010, about 100 million people had cable or a satellite dish, Variety said. Now that’s 85 million and falling annually.
— And people who keep cable, but spend more time with streaming networks.
One solution is to launch a show on basic-cable, then get extra viewers by moving it to a streamer. AMC has AMC+, with about 12 million subscribers; FX has Hulu (both are owned by Disney), which tops 50 million.
“They’re struggling with their … small-streamer model,” Landgraf told the TCA. “I feel incredibly fortunate that Disney bought Fox – and, with it, FX — and incorporated us into their … much more ambitious streaming.”
That works well … except some of his shows go straight to Hulu, skipping cable. It’s been three months since FX had a new, scripted series on the air.
As for AMC, it sometimes goes for a triple shot – AMC and AMC+ and then selling the show to Netflix.
It keeps turning out “Walking Dead” spin-offs and made a mega-deal aimed at the same audience – buying rights to all of the Anne Rice novels. So far, that’s brought two seasons apiece for “Interview With the Vampire” and “Mayfair Witches,” each richly filmed and – if you’ll accept witches and vampires – intelligently crafted; coming is “The Talamasca.”
And yes, AMC isn’t pnly supernatural. “Dark Winds”is a prime example.
At the core is Joe Leaphorn (Zahn McClarnon, shown here), a tribal police lieutenant, bearing steep pain from the past. His son was killed in an explosion; later, Joe secretly led to the death of a greedy businessman who was involve.
One young deputy is Jim Chee (Kiowa Gordon); a former deputy, Bernadette Manuelito (Jessica Matten) is now working in the border patrol.
As the season starts, she has an emotional case and Joe is searching for teens … while a visiting FBI agent (Jenna Elfman) digs into his secrets.
The result is slow, deep, compelling and (in that sixth episode) confusing. It’s the sort of show that helps scripted shows continue on basic cable.